The Federate Cascade (376–476)

The Balkan Precedent (376–382)
- Controlled admission collapses into Thracian revolt
  - Valens grants Danubian crossing to Fritigern's starving Tervingi in 376.
  - Lupicinus extorts refugees with dog-flesh, sparking open rebellion at Marcianople.
  - Greuthungi and Alan cavalry cross unsupervised, swelling the armed host.
- Catastrophe of Adrianople (9 August 378)
  - Two-thirds of eastern field army destroyed; Valens killed (AGrade A).
  - First irreversible loss of Roman field manpower since Cannae.
- Theodosian treaty of 3 October 382
  - Goths settled in Thrace as intact nation under native chiefs.
  - Terms inferred from behavior; documented text completely lost (CGrade C).
  - Established precedent: military service exchanged for land and autonomous rule.
The Visigothic Migration (395–418)
- Alaric escalates price of Gothic service
  - Subsidies lapse at Theodosius's death; Alaric acclaimed king in 395.
  - Ten thousand federates died at Frigidus (394); survivors demand imperial rank.
  - Stilicho secures 4,000 pounds of gold arrears from Senate (408).
- Severed alliance forces Rome's sack (410)
  - Ravenna court executes Stilicho; Italian garrisons slaughter federate soldier families.
  - Thirty thousand barbarian regulars defect to Alaric (tradition's arithmetic, CGrade C).
  - Three-day sack of Rome (410); Galla Placidia taken hostage (AGrade A).
- Aquitaine settlement of 418
  - Patrician Constantius settles Visigoths in Aquitanian diocesan heartland.
  - Gothic arms contracted to police Spain against Vandals and Sueves.
  - Model transfers tax yields directly to allied warriors via hospitalitas.
The African Amputation (429–442)
- Vandals breach western maritime perimeter
  - Gaiseric leads 80,000 souls across Gibraltar into Mauretania in 429.
  - Crossing-count of 80,000 is transmitted census tradition, debated modernly (BGrade B).
  - Hippo Regius falls after fourteen-month siege; Augustine dies inside (430).
- Seizure of Carthage (19 October 439)
  - Carthage seized during peace; fleet, mint, and arsenals captured intact.
  - Severed Roman grain and oil tax-base paying western field army.
  - Vandals transform into naval power raiding Sicily, Sardinia, and Italy.
- Formal cession of African sovereignty (442)
  - First Roman territory formally conceded without federate fiction (AGrade A).
  - Valentinian III's novels lament fiscal losses scarcely believable (AGrade A).
  - Western state reduced to Gallic-Italian rump administering its own decline.
The Gallic Patchwork (436–451)
- Aetius's Hunnic reserve-currency strategy
  - Huns hired to annihilate Worms Burgundians (436/7); twenty thousand dead.
  - Gundahar's defeat provides historic substrate for Nibelung legend (BGrade B).
  - Remnant Burgundians settled in Sapaudia (443); Alans planted along Loire.
- Attila turns against western debtor (451)
  - Huns extort 6,000 pounds annual gold before pivoting westward.
  - Pretext: Princess Honoria's ring and dowry claim (BGrade B contemporary belief).
  - Attila crosses Rhine with subject Gepids, Sciri, and Rugians.
- Catalaunian Plains collision (June 451)
  - Aetius unites Roman regulars, Visigoths, Alans, and Franks as 'Roman side'.
  - Theodoric I killed; Gothic charge repulses Huns into wagon-laager.
  - Tactics unlocated (CGrade C); reported 165,000 dead is apocalyptic memory (DGrade D).
Italy's Final Liquidation (455–476)
- Naval armadas fail to recover Africa
  - Fourteen-day Vandal sack of Rome systematically strips imperial assets (455).
  - Majorian's 300-ship fleet betrayed and burned at Cartagena in 461.
  - Cape Bon fire-ships incinerate 1,100 ships and 65,000 gold pounds (468).
- Visigothic secession under King Euric
  - Euric renounces Roman federate treaty after Cape Bon disaster (468).
  - Clermont ceded in 475 despite defense by Sidonius and Ecdicius.
  - Independent Gothic kingdom spans Gaul to Gibraltar, terminating Roman governance.
- Odoacer discharges Italian army (September 476)
  - Danubian federates demand one-third of Italian soil; Orestes executed at Placentia.
  - Romulus Augustulus pensioned to Lucullan villa with 6,000 solidi (AGrade A).
  - Senate mails regalia to Constantinople: western army has liquidated itself.

VIII-M02 · generated by the Imperium factory studio (gemini-3.8-flash) from Book VIII under the House Preamble.